Archive for July, 2009

L’AQUILA, Italy (CNN) — President Obama argued Friday that the Group of Eight nations had sent a clear message to Iran: The world will not “wait indefinitely” and allow the country to build nuclear weapons. “The international community has said, ‘Here’s a door you can walk through that allows you to lessen tensions and more fully join the international community,’ ” Obama told reporters at a news conference at the end of the G-8 summit in Italy.

“If Iran chooses not to walk through that door, then you have on record the G-8 to begin with, but I think potentially a lot of other countries, that are going to say, ‘We need to take further steps.’ ” Obama met with some fellow leaders to push for a threat of potential new sanctions against Iran, but the G-8 did not issue such a threat. Obama — who has promised diplomatic engagement with Tehran — said offering a “door” has always been “our premise.”

“But we also say we’re not going to just wait indefinitely and allow for the development of the nuclear weapon, the breach of international treaties, and wake up one day and find ourselves in a much worse situation and unable to act. So my hope is that the Iranian leadership will look at the statement coming out of the G-8 and recognize that world opinion is clear.” The G-8 statement expressed commitment “to finding a diplomatic solution to the issue of Iran’s nuclear program” and said Iran “has the right to a civilian nuclear program, but that comes with the responsibility to restore confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear activities.” “We sincerely hope that Iran will seize this opportunity to give diplomacy a chance to find a negotiated solution to the nuclear issue,” the statement said.

Reports said Obama met with some fellow leaders to push for a threat of potential new sanctions against Iran in the wake of the government’s crackdown on protesters following the disputed June 12 election. Obama denied those reports, saying, “What we wanted was exactly what we got, which is a statement of unity and strong condemnation about the appalling treatment of peaceful protesters post-election in Iran as well as some behavior that just violates basic international norms.” The G-8 statement said the group “deplores” the violence.

ISLAMABAD (AP) — After relative success against Islamic extremists elsewhere, Pakistan’s military faces its toughest test yet — a surgical operation against the country’s most dangerous militant in a region of harsh terrain and fierce tribal rivalries. The target of the air and ground offensive now in its early phases is Baitullah Mehsud, the top commander of Pakistan’s Taliban who has ties to al-Qaida. Mehsud is believed responsible for scores of suicide attacks — possibly including the December 2007 assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

Pakistan considers Mehsud its greatest domestic threat. The U.S. views him as a danger to its war effort in Afghanistan because his base in South Waziristan harbors militants fleeing across the border. The Obama administration fears that a destabilized, nuclear-armed Pakistan could endanger the entire region. In recent months, U.S. missile strikes have increasingly focused on Mehsud-linked targets. For years, Washington has pressed Pakistan to go beyond halfhearted offensives and fragile peace deals to root out militants from its northwest, especially the lawless tribal belt where al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden may be hiding. Now it appears Pakistan may be heeding the call following major ground operations against Taliban fighters in the Bajur tribal region and the Swat Valley. But taking on Mehsud and his force of up to 10,000 fighters in South Waziristan will likely prove tougher.

Roughly half the size of Connecticut, South Waziristan is a mountainous, underdeveloped territory. It has a leaky border with Afghanistan, barely any government infrastructure and fiercely independent, heavily armed Pashtun tribes hostile to interference by outsiders, including Pakistan’s Punjabi-dominated army. Already, army officials are stressing that the operation will be limited — focusing on capturing or killing Mehsud and destroying his terror infrastructure rather than targeting other militant groups. Mehsud “is the main center of gravity. He is a leader who has declared himself the emir, the ruler of the other factions, also. He has been the main source of terrorism in Pakistan,” Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, the army’s chief spokesman, told The Associated Press.

As it ramps up its offensive, the military is trying to choke off sections of South Waziristan under Mehsud’s control. Major roads are being cleared and potential escape routes sealed off to isolate the militants before the army’s campaign takes off, Abbas said. “We want to create certain effects in the area, like softening the targets, targeting their training centers, their suicide-bombing centers, and also hit hard their logistics. That will reduce their force capability,” Abbas said. By limiting the scope of the operation, the Pakistanis hope to avoid alienating other tribes, whose support — or at least neutrality — would be crucial to eliminating Mehsud.

Key to that effort is to cut deals with other militant leaders such as Maulvi Nazir, who recently agreed to a cease-fire. Nazir’s fighters maintain a significant presence along the Afghan border and could help restrict movements of pro-Mehsud Taliban to and from Afghanistan. “They cannot afford to alienate every single militant,” said Kamran Bokhari of STRATFOR, a private security think-tank in Austin, Texas. “The tribes, the militia leaders, they are adjusting day by day. It’s an issue of sorting out the baddies from the ones who aren’t fighting the Pakistani state.” In February, Pakistan said it had defeated militants in Bajur after a six-month offensive, and it is now winding down a nearly three-month battle in the Swat Valley. But violence occasionally flares in Bajur, which, while also a rugged border area, is smaller than South Waziristan. And in Swat, many insurgents are believed to have fled to the hills.

Other differences add to the South Waziristan challenge. Swat does not have as strong a tribal structure and legally it was a full-fledged part of Pakistan with government presence. Bajur’s tribes are not as well off as those in Waziristan and appear more willing to work with the military, even setting up their own militias to take on the Taliban. Aside from the porous border, South Waziristan’s terrain poses other problems. Pakistan’s army is organized and trained to fight its traditional rival, India, on the eastern plains rather than guerrillas entrenched in mountains. The army, with U.S. assistance, is improving its counterinsurgency capabilities but is far from being as nimble enough. Several factors have contributed to growing public anger against the Taliban, including their foray into a district just 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the capital, Islamabad, and a video showing militants flogging a young woman.

Whether the support would survive a long and bloody fight in South Waziristan is unclear. Some analysts suspect the U.S. and Pakistani governments have a secret deal allowing the U.S. missile strikes, even though Pakistan publicly protests them, saying they anger the tribes. Bokhari said the Pakistani military has weeks, not months, to make an impact in South Waziristan because public support for the operation could fade. Even if it never captures or kills Mehsud, the army needs to be able to say it has destroyed his network.”Now you have momentum,” Bokhari said. “You don’t want to drag it out too long.”