Archive for February, 2009

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Please note that Pakistan has withdrawn a second divisional HQ from the NWFP. We assume its is HQ 23 Division plus the one brigade that went with the HQ to NWFP; Mandeep Singh Bajwa will let us know when he has confirmation. we are approaching the point where two-thirds of the reinforcements sent west are in the process of withdrawing. Please also note Bill Roggio at Long War Journal reports that in the Orakzi agency, one of the seven tribal agencies of the NWFP, Taliban has enforced Sharia law on 15 of 21 tribes in the agency. In other words, the Talibanization of the NWFP is proceeding rapidly. We also have an analysis on why Pakistani soldiers are refusing to fight the insurgents – we already knew why, but for the first time we have information from someone on the scene. We will give it to you tomorrow. But all in all, the US by insisting Pakistan fight the insurgents set itself up for failure. Again, we have said this before, we can now say it from another angle. US policy in the region has to change dramatically if there is to be hope of success in Afghanistan.

Our trusty correspondent, Mandeep Singh Bajwa, informed us this morning that India has offered to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan. Naturally we asked Mandeep “are we being used by the Indians in a psyops game to put pressure on Pakistan?” Not that the Government of India knows we exist, but in all the movies about the media the Editor always asks if the paper is being played.

Mandeep’s answer, paraphrased, was this: “I don’t know at what level the offer has been made, but the Indian Army and Air Force are down to identifying specific units, formations, and squadrons…” – details, as we said, at Long War Journal – “…as well as discussing a specific name for force commander, plus working on the details of pre-deployment training, so this is a lot more elaborate than needed for a psyops game.’

We’d prefer to discuss this after we learn more, rather than waste your time with elaborate theories spun out of nothing (“Orbat.com’s military sources say…”). But the following points are immediately apparent.

For the new US administration, this offer would be heaven-sent and just making it would put the US Government in debt to the Indians – “your other friends/allies talked, we walked.” The administration could turn around to to its own people, and say: “Americans, you complain we are carrying the Afghan burden by ourselves, now we have a partner.”

At Orbat.com we’ve been constantly talking about the need for more manpower; well, here you have a whacking big increment of manpower. With US/Allied troops it takes one to 75% of what Orbat.com considers a minimum force if Afghanistan is to be won.

In one deft swoop, India forces the Americans to chose Delhi over Islamabad. To the Indians the constant US attempt to “balance” the two countries has been a source of serious blood pressure since the 1940s; obviously if the Americans accept it has to be India First from now on and Pakistan gets marginalized. Moreover, the Indians put America up the creek without the paddle regarding Pakistan: “what is it your so-called ally is doing, compared to what we are willing to do.”

The devious cunning of the Indian move becomes more apparent when you consider if the US government refuses, the American people are going to get on the Government’s case: “The Indians are offering and you’re still sticking with those slimey two-timers the Pakistanis?”

For India, offering a huge contingent takes the pressure off the Indian government to act aggressively against Pakistan. India does not have a launch a single sortie against Pakistan to punish it for acting against India. Indian government can tell its own people: “What good will a pinprick do? The Israelis have been bashing up the Palestinians for two decades, and where are the results? What we are doing is to strike a hard blow at Pakistan without crossing the Pakistan border and getting beat up by everyone for provoking war.”

Plus India neatly destroys Pakistan’s strategic depth objective. The Indians have been wanting to get into the act in Afghanistan for several years, because they know a Taliban government means more fundamentalist pressure on Pakistan and thereby on India. But the Americans have been refusing India help for fear of offending the Pakistanis. For India to get into Afghanistan in force is to again change the paradigm of Indian-Pakistani relations as happened in 1971 when India split East Bengal from Pakistan. For the last almost 40 years India’s efforts to marginalize Pakistan have been stymied. If the US accepts the Indian offer, India gains hugely.

But right now a lot of American decision-makers do not care if Pakistan is offended because they see the latter has no interest in fighting the insurgents or helping the US against the Taliban. Once alternate supply routes are available, US can write off Pakistan and as a consequence, paradoxically, vastly increase its leverage in that country.

As for Pakistani/jihadi retaliation against India or the Indian contingent in Afghanistan, we’ve said before the Indians don’t care. Their point is India is squarely in the sights of the jihadis: India is already under severe, sustained attack and unable to retaliate. As for the security of the Indian troops, that really is the last thing the Indians are concerned about. They want to go to Afghanistan to fight, not to protect their troops against suicide bombers.

Two other minor points in passing. By making this offer, India takes the wind out of Pakistan’s sails because the latter has very successful turned the world’s attention from the Bombay atrocity to getting the world to stop escalation between India and Pakistan. Every day that goes by, India has less diplomatic/geopolitical freedom to hit Pakistan. But if India has offered several divisions for Afghanistan, obviously the last thing the Indians are thinking of is attacking Pakistan – 3/4th of the Army troops (as opposed to the CI troops) India is earmarking for Afghanistan are from the three strike corps. So India undercuts Pakistani claims that Delhi is preparing to attack.

The second point we find interesting. PRC knows if Pakistan falls to the jihadis, Sinkiang is the next target. By offering to go to Afghanistan, India is directly helping Beijing. Which puts Beijing in a very awkward spot as India is a big rival for influence in Asia. Not only will Indians be helping PRC, if China does send troops to Afghanistan, Delhi will canoodle with Washington without competition from China. The Chinese will have no choice but to join the Afghan venture or lose influence in South and Central Asia, and with Washington.

To sum up: Orbat.com has been second to none in bashing the Government of India as incompetent and impotent. But with this offer, India has overnight changed the rules of game in South/Central Asia and struck a potentially fatal blow at Pakistan. In the end, this could become much, much bigger by an order of magnitude than breaking off East Pakistan in 1971.

This is going through some serious considerations, Orbat.com contains some esteemed members of the Indian Foreign Service as well as one of them is a moderator at think-tank BR.

This is what Mandeep had to say

“For those wondering whether India is prepared to send troops to Afghanistan let me assure you that serious consideration is being given to the proposal. It makes real sense, never more so than at this particular time.Domestically it’ll be a real winner with everyone on board except the Commies whom no one takes seriously any more in any case.

How will the troops be maintained ? If the US is successful (and when they put their mind and will to it they more often than not usually are) in opening up an alternate logistical route, well then that’s how we’ll ensure that our troops get their supplies. That also means that the US no longer hase any stake in allying with Pakistan which is more of a nuisance, to put it mildly than a partner in any sense of the word.

As for Orbat.Com’s credibility those who’ve read our work over the years will understand that we don’t get our facts from the newspapers and they’re most often right. ”

The Indian Troops To Afghanistan Story

Mandeep Singh Bajwa says this story is an effort by India to gauge US reaction to a potential offer of troops for Afghanistan. India is talking at several back channels level with the US. We weren’t meant to get the story, but once we got it, the Indian Army, at least, wasn’t uncomfortable with that. Given we are read by perhaps 4000 people a day and have a reputation in many circles of being a fringe blog, the Indian Army doesn’t even have to bother denying the story, its easy enough to say “off source” that’s its our wild imagination.
So we wildly imagine the following possible offer to the United States:

Lt. General Bikram Singh as Force Commander (tentative)
HQ III Corps or HQ XXI Corps
4th Infantry Division
6th Mountain Division
23rd Infantry Division
36th RAPID Division
30+ Rashtriya Rifles CI battalions
2 Reconnaissance and Observation squadrons (Army Aviation)
1 Il-76 squadron
2 An-32 squadrons
4+ Mi-17 helicopter units
1 UAV squadron
2 fighter squadrons
Undetermined number of paramilitary security battalions
HQ III Corps is the counter-insurgency corps in Eastern Command, it is dual-tasked to the western front. In exercises and on operations it has functioned, on different occasions, in three different sectors. HQ XXI Corps is the third Indian strike corps, but is not as critical as the other two strike corps and is dual-tasked as India’s intervention force corps. So there’s good reasons to take either.
The infantry divisions include a tank battalion. 36th Division has one tank and two infantry brigades. All four divisions are part of strike corps and so are not deployed on the front, but India will give up its ability to sustain a major offensive against Pakistan if these divisions are overseas.
The only thing that needs explanation for our non-Indian readers is the Rashtriya Rifles. These are specialized for counter-insurgency and have six rifle companies vs the usual Indian infantry battalion’s four. CI is, after all, a manpower intensive business. The troops are all regular Army and do a 3-year rotation with the RR from their affiliated regiments with the RR. Each Army regimental center has 3 or more RR battalions affiliated.
Because the Indians tend to bulk up their divisions with extra brigades and their brigades with extra infantry battalions when on CI, its probably reasonable to assume the four divisions will have 50 battalions with them (including corps independent brigades). With the RR, that’s 380 rifle companies, or the equivalent of nine US divisions. (We count the US brigade as having 10 companies, because the cavalry squadron in the brigade is very manpower short. We’re sure it’s all well and fine in the type of high-tech/sensor dense environment for which it is designed, but we’re talking CI here.

Our Humble Opinion
The United States would be mad to refuse the Indian offer.
The Indians would be mad to actually follow through.

orbat.com

A routine convoy mission in Afghanistan where some of the convoy got stuck in the snow storm and a traffic jam after an accident before turning back to base

As US and the UK forces struggle for a way forward in Afghanistan, John D McHugh’s unique film from one of the US military’s most dangerous outposts shows just how western forces are losing ground to the Taliban.